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The U.S. is sending 3,000 more troops to Poland as the Biden administration issued new warnings that Russia was poised to invade Ukraine at any moment.
Washington and London, meanwhile, are urging their citizens to leave Ukraine immediately.
The alarms were the most strident to date of a crisis that began last fall as Russia significantly built up troops along the Ukrainian border, and they came as diplomatic efforts to convince Russian President Vladimir Putin to abandon thoughts of invasion appear to, at best, have stalled out.
The warnings also come as Russia kicked off a major military exercise in Belarus with tens of thousands of troops, leading to new concerns that the push into Ukraine could come under the guise of the drills.
Two official sources in Washington and Europe said intelligence shared with them by the United States pinpointed Feb. 16 as a possible start date for the invasion. Publicly, however, aides to President Joe Biden would not confirm a specific date other than to say that — counter to much public speculation and some previous assessments from Washington — an invasion could begin before the Feb. 20 end of the Beijing Winter Olympics.
On Friday, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin ordered 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Infantry Brigade Combat Team to Poland, a senior DoD official told POLITICO. The contingent will add to forces ordered to deploy there last week and will bring the total number of U.S. troops sent to Poland and Germany to 5,000. Additionally, 1,000 soldiers based in Germany were also sent to Romania last week. The U.S. also sent four U.K.-based F-15 fighters to Poland.
The troops are being deployed to reassure NATO allies and “deter any potential aggression against NATO’s eastern flank,” the Pentagon official said. These troops are in addition to the 8,500 the Biden administration pledged to make available to join the NATO Response Force should Putin move into Ukraine.
The head of Norway's military intelligence service, Vice Adm. Nils Andreas Stensønes, told reporters in Oslo on Friday that the Russians have “all they need to carry everything out, from a minor invasion in the east to minor attacks here and there in Ukraine, or a complete invasion, with, possibly, an occupation of all or parts of Ukraine.”
White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan on Friday implored U.S. citizens to leave Ukraine within the next 24 to 48 hours. He told reporters that he was not saying Putin had decided to invade, but made clear that the signs were there. He also spelled out what could happen.
“If a Russian attack on Ukraine proceeds, it is likely to begin with aerial bombing and missile attacks that could obviously kill civilians without regard to their nationality,” Sullivan said.
In a statement late Friday, the U.K. urged British nationals to “leave now via commercial means while they remain available,” while the Netherlands, Norway and Israel all issued statements warning their citizens against travel to Ukraine, Belarus and Russia.
A senior Polish government official, speaking anonymously to discuss sensitive intelligence, told POLITICO that a Russian offensive in the coming days is “certainly possible.”
“[The] Russian army concentration is unprecedented” along the Ukraine border, the Polish official said. “But it is at least equally likely that we might face something less than outright large-scale conflict. Provocations, smaller or bigger incidents here and there, little green men etc. — that's Putin's playbook.”
Lili Bayer and Erin Banco contributed to this report.
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