Opinion: The Fed's balancing act is about to get a lot harder

Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, oil and other commodity prices have surged and recession risks have risen sharply. In fact, the odds of a recession beginning in the next 12 months are getting uncomfortably high: one-in-three, and rising as time goes on. To avoid a downturn, the Federal Reserve will need to carefully calibrate its interest rate increases as it fights against rising inflation.